Evercore ISI analysts have highlighted several pivotal catalysts in 2025 that could significantly accelerate the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and robotaxis, thus propelling the industry’s progress toward the physical AI revolution.
According to the firm, one of the leading players in the AV space, Waymo, is set to expand its footprint considerably this year. The company plans to launch test vehicles in 10 new cities, including San Diego and Las Vegas, in 2025. This move is expected to drive the company’s growth in critical markets. Furthermore, Waymo is extending its collaboration with Uber (NYSE: UBER), launching its services exclusively through the Uber app in Austin in March, followed by Atlanta in the second quarter. Evercore analysts predict that these expansions will significantly enhance Waymo's presence and influence across the AV market.
In addition to Waymo, Amazon’s autonomous vehicle arm, Zoox, is poised for a major breakthrough. Currently testing in San Francisco, Foster City, and Las Vegas, Zoox is anticipated to roll out a paid commercial robotaxi service to the public in 2025, with Las Vegas expected to be the first city to launch the service in the first half of the year. This marks an important step for Amazon as it ventures further into the competitive autonomous transportation sector.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is also gearing up for significant developments. The company is planning to introduce a paid robotaxi service in Austin in June, with Elon Musk promising the deployment of “unsupervised” full self-driving (FSD) technology in several regions, including California, later in 2025. Tesla's advancements in FSD are closely watched, as they could potentially redefine the landscape for autonomous vehicles.
Evercore ISI also reports that Waymo has been making notable strides in market share acquisition in California. In December 2024, the company completed 541,000 trips, a rise from 504,000 in November. Waymo’s growth trajectory is evident as the company reached 200,000+ paid trips per week in February, an increase from 150,000+ paid trips per week in October. Furthermore, Waymo’s efficiency has been improving, with its pick-up times in San Francisco surpassing those of Lyft (NASDAQ: LYFT), signaling an enhancement in service quality.
As a whole, these developments point to a busy year ahead for the autonomous vehicle and robotaxi sectors. With several major players making strides in key markets, particularly in mid-sized cities in the Sun Belt region, the opportunities for growth and innovation in the industry are abundant. The year 2025 is set to be a turning point for autonomous vehicles, laying the groundwork for the future of mobility.
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